The Future of the TV Ad
We all know that ad spending is down this year. A recent study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers said advertising expenditures worldwide would total $467 billion by 2013. Sounds like a big number, but it’s actually about 2.5% lower than 2008’s $479.3 billion. Alone, this could change the ad market.
And there’s a shift in where those ad dollars are being spent. We’ve been hearing for a long time about the demise of the newspaper industry as people shift to getting their news from other sources. But there’s also the shift from ads in broadcast TV to cable TV, from radio to online, etc. The table below highlights those projected spending changes.
But for me, the biggest impact on the TV ad will come with the increased usage of DVRs. Some facts from “Advertising in the DVR Age” by DVR Research Institute:
- 83% of marketers surveyed said that over the next three years DVRs will negatively impact the effectiveness of TV advertising
- 77% of agency executives see DVR usage as the greatest challenge to the current ad model
- DVR penetration stands at 26%, up from 17% two years ago
- Ad skipping currently is only 5-6%, but is forecast to jump to 16-18% in two years; in primetime, this may be as high as 25-33%
Things to watch for:
- More product placement in programming (Coke in American Idol, SoyJoy in The Closer)
- More cause marketing (brands, like Nike, supporting individuals and their causes, like Lance Armstrong’s Livestrong)
- Changing the length of ad pods (shorter commercial breaks, such as “Fringe will be back in 60 seconds”)
- More program-related content embedded in advertising pods (interviews with stars regarding their role in program; e.g., the “Inside Look” and “Behind the Scenes” segment embeds in BBC America’s Mistresses’ commercial pods)
Tags: DVR Usage, TV Advertising
Aug 06, 2009
I think the big change will be a result of web-based television, and I don’t mean the major networks launching web-based viewers for fans to watch their favorite episodes. While those will become an increasingly popular means of consuming television, I think there will be something that truly impacts the game of TV.
Similar to how Twitter and Facebook have changed the way marketers, advertisers and PR pros think about communication, I think something like boxee.tv will change the game of TV. Gary Vaynerchuk – http://www.garyvaynerchuk.com has mentioned this idea/concept as well, and you should definitely check out his thoughts on this. As soon as consumers are able to pick and choose what they consume from a web-based platform the TV and media industry will be completely jostled. What Twitter and blogging has done for journalism, something will surely do for TV, giving the individual a voice equally as powerful as the large networks.
Thoughts?
Aug 06, 2009
Ben, an outstanding contribution to the discussion! I hadn’t heard of boxee.tv, but I just looked at the demo and I can see what you’re saying. The idea of my friends seeing what I’m watching and tuning in really does take this to the next level. So maybe another “thing to look for” will be more brand-sponsored “bumper” ads (lead in and breaks in programming), like we have now on video-on-demand or when watching episodes on the computer. (Am I assuming correctly that this is likely how boxee.tv will work?) I try to stay up on tech trends…but this just blows my mind. You’ll have me shaking my head for the rest of the day! Thanks much!
Aug 10, 2009
Another article on this from yesterday: http://undercurrents.tmgstrategies.com/2009/08/07/television-and-the-web-to-converge-or-not/